daily_2019_02.28(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 1.4%(+0.1%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 13.5%(-8.1%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 46.1%(+11.1%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle 

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (+0.02%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.68% (+0.05%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.187% (+0.030%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.33% (+0.03%p)
US high yield 6.60% (-0.01%p)

Emerging government bond 6.42% (-0.00%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.10% (+0.00%p)
Korea stock yield 9.12% (-0.00%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.03% (+0.01%p)
- Up : Brazil
- Down : 

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (42, -1 vs. 52week low (9, +7)

+ 52week high

* US IT Service
- Service Now (US IT S/W), Shopify (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 288.45 (+0.00%) foreign investors -981 constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,117.20 Won (-1.66 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 123.2 (-0.1)
- KOSDAQ 6.9 (-0.0)

- IT 43.5 (-0.0)
- Financial 19.8 (-0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.7 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (+0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, -0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.41 trillion won -0.00 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.11%, -0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)