daily_2019.02.06(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.06

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 4.4%(-0.4%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 11.4%(-11.8%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 38.4%(-7.6%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.52% (+0.02%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.70% (+0.02%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.174% (-0.009%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.36% (+0.01%p)
US high yield 6.84% (-0.04%p)

Emerging government bond 6.33% (-0.06%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.30% (-0.02%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.5% (0.00%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.07% (-0.01%p)
- Up : South African
- Down : Canada, Germany, Italy, Russia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (51, +6) vs. 52week low (5, -3)

+ 52week high

* Semiconductors
- Broadcom (US Semiconductor), NEC (Japan IT H/W)

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market (New Year Holiday)