daily_2019.02.01(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.01

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 0.2% (-1.6%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 28.3% (+18.6%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 34.0% (-11.4%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.46% (-0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.62% (-0.05%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.168% (-0.010%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.34% (-0.05%p)
US high yield 6.97% (-0.08%p)

Emerging government bond 6.51% (0.00%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.44% (-0.02%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.72% (+0.00%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.08% (+0.00%p)
- Up : Russia
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (52, +11) vs. 52week low (4, 0)

+ 52week high

* US Software
- Cadence Design (US IT S/W), Service Now (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 287.70 (+0.26%) foreign investors +2,605constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,111.50 Won (-1.23 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 129.2 (-0.6) 
- KOSDAQ 7.2 (-0.1)

- IT 46.8 (-0.1)
- Financial 22.1 (0.0)
- Refining & Chemical 10.3 (-0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (-0.1)
- Steel 4.0 (-0.1)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.38X, +0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.05 trillion won +0.03 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.09%, +0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)