daily_2019.02.20(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.20

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 1.8%(-2.6%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 11.1%(-0.4%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 38.3%(-4.9%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (-0.01%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.65% (-0.01%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.151% (+0.003%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.30% (-0.01%p)
US high yield 6.72% (-0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.43% (-0.02%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.30% (+0.26%p)
Korea stock yield 9.34% (-0.01%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : South Africa

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (52, -6 vs. 52week low (0, -11)

+ 52week high

* Global Pharmaceutical
- Roche (Swiss Pharma), Eli Lilly (US Pharma)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 287.15 (+0.53%) foreign investors +2,650constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,121.84 Won (-7.45 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 124.9 (-0.3)
- KOSDAQ 7.0 (-0.2)

- IT 44.1 (-0.1)
- Financial 20.3 (-0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.8 (-0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, +0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.30 trillion won +0.04 trillion won

- % of Market cap, 2.09%, +0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)