daily_2019.02.15(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.15

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 1.8%(-9.3%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 12.7%(+7.2%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 42.1%(+2.7%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (-0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.66% (-0.05%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.163% (-0.008%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.30% (-0.06%p)
US high yield 6.73% (-0.07%p)

Emerging government bond 6.37% (-0.09%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.29% (-0.02%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.29% (-0.03%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (53, -6 vs. 52week low (9, +1)

+ 52week high

* US Auto Retail
- Autozone (US Specialty Retail), O'Reilly (US Specialty Retail)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 287.45 (-0.31%) foreign investors -1,375constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,125.31 Won (-0.06 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.1 (+2.1) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (+0.0)

- IT 44.2 (-0.1)
- Financial 20.4 (+0.4)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.9 (+0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (-0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (+0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.31X, -0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.20 trillion won +0.04 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.06%, -0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)