daily_2019.02.12(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.12

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 0.1%(-0.1%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 16.4%(-4.2%p)

US recession probability 21.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 46.0%(+4.2%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US Fed Fund > US 2yr bill, US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.48% (+0.01%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.65% (+0.02%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.168% (+0.000%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.31% (+0.02%p)
US high yield 6.91% (+0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.44% (+0.02%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.39% (+0.01%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.56% (-0.02%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (-0.02%p)
- Up :
- Down : Canada, Germany, France, Italy

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (44, +19 vs. 52week low (11, -9)

+ 52week high

* Global REITs
- Service Now (US IT S/W), Cadence Design (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market


* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 282.55 (-0.04%) foreign investors +362constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,125.05 Won (+0.40 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.3 (-0.4) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (+0.1)

- IT 44.2 (-0.2)
- Financial 21.9 (-0.1)
- Refiners & Chemicals 10.0 (-0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (-0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, +0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.07 trillion won -0.01 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.04%, -0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)