daily_2019.02.21(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 2.1%(+0.3%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 13.2%(+2.1%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 39.3%(+1.0%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (+0.00%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.65% (+0.00%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.145% (-0.006%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.30% (+0.00%p)
US high yield 6.72% (+0.00%p)

Emerging government bond 6.43% (+0.00%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.31% (+0.01%p)
Korea stock yield 9.17% (-0.16%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.03% (-0.02%p)
- Up :
- Down : Germany, Italy, Japan

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (68, +16 vs. 52week low (3, +3)

+ 52week high

* US Software
- Intuit (US IT S/W), Workday (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 288.45 (+0.02%) foreign investors +753constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,122.45 Won (-1.19 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 124.8 (-0.1)
- KOSDAQ 6.9 (-0.1)

- IT 44.1 (-0.0)
- Financial 20.3 (-0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.8 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, -0.02X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.31 trillion won +0.01 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.08%, -0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)