daily_2019.02.04(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.04

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 4.8%(+4.6%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 23.2%(-5.1%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 46.0%(+12.0%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (+0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.68% (+0.06%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.183% (+0.015%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.35% (+0.01%p)
US high yield 6.88% (-0.09%p)

Emerging government bond 6.39% (-0.12%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.32% (-0.12%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.5% (-0.22%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.08% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : France

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (45, -7) vs. 52week low (8, +4)

+ 52week high

* Australian Miners
- Fortescue Metal (Australia Steel), BHP Billiton (Australia, Iron ore Miner)

+ 52week low

* European Banks
- Societe General (France Bank), Bankia (Spain Bank)

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 286.85 (+0.19%) foreign investors +1,544constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,118.55 Won (-0.56 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.8 (-3.4) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (+0.1)

- IT 44.2 (-2.6)
- Financial 22.1 (-0.0)
- Refining & Chemical 10.1 (-0.2)
- Auto 5.2 (-0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.37X, -0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.06 trillion won +0.01 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.09%, +0.00%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)