daily_2019.02.07(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.07

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 6.0%(+1.6%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 12.0%(+0.6%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 37.0%(-1.4%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.52% (-0.00%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.69% (-0.01%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.172% (-0.002%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.33% (-0.03%p)
US high yield 6.75% (-0.09%p)

Emerging government bond 6.32% (-0.01%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.29% (-0.01%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.50% (0.00%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.07% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (34, -17 vs. 52week low (5, 0)

+ 52week high

* Iron Ore Miners
- BHP Billiton (Australian Miners), Rio Tinto (Britain Miners)

+ 52week low


* Global Gaming
- Sony (Japan IT H/W), Activision Blizzard (US IT S/W)


+ Korea Market (New Year Holiday)