daily_2019.02.08(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.08

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 3.4%(-2.6%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 19.0%(+7.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 41.6%(+4.6%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.48% (-0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.65% (-0.04%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.170% (-0.002%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.29% (-0.04%p)
US high yield 6.70% (-0.05%p)

Emerging government bond 6.31% (-0.01%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.31% (+0.02%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.47% (-0.03%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.07% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (35, +1 vs. 52week low (16, +11)

+ 52week high

* Global REITs
- Realty Income (US REITs), GDP Group (Australia REITs)

+ 52week low

* European Banks
- CaixaBank (Spain Bank), Societe General (France Bank)


+ Korea Market


* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 287.75 (-0.44%) foreign investors +822constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,123.85 Won (-0.29 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.7 (-0.1) 
- KOSDAQ 7.2 (-0.1)

- IT 44.4 (+0.2)
- Financial 22.1 (-0.2)
- Refiners & Chemicals 10.1 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (-0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, -0.03X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.08 trillion won +0.02 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.06%, -0.03%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)