daily_2019.02.13(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.13

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 6.1%(+6.0%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 14.7%(-1.7%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 32.6%(-13.4%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.50% (+0.02%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.68% (+0.03%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.179% (+0.011%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.33% (+0.02%p)
US high yield 6.86% (-0.05%p)

Emerging government bond 6.49% (+0.05%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.35% (-0.04%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.43% (-0.13%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : UK, Russia

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (59, +15 vs. 52week low (8, -3)

+ 52week high

* US Software
- Splunk (US IT S/W), Workday (US IT S/W)

* US Medical Equipment
- Stryker (US Medical Equipment), Boston Scientific (US Medical Equipment)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 285.50 (+0.42%) foreign investors +1,683constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,120.36 Won (-3.49 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.1 (-0.2) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (+0.0)

- IT 44.2 (-0.0)
- Financial 21.8 (-0.1)
- Refiners & Chemicals 10.0 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, -0.02X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.12 trillion won +0.05 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.07%, +0.03%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)