daily_2019.02.11(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.11

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 0.2%(-2.2%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 20.6%(+1.6%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 41.8%(+0.2%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US Fed Fund > US 2yr bill, US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.47% (-0.01%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.63% (-0.02%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.168% (-0.002%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.29% (+0.00%p)
US high yield 6.89% (+0.19%p)

Emerging government bond 6.42% (+0.11%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.38% (+0.07%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.58% (+0.11%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.07% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : Canada, Italy

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (25, -10 vs. 52week low (20, +4)

+ 52week high

* Global REITs
- Equity Residential (US REITs), Mirvac Group (Australia REITs)

+ 52week low

* Global Material
- Toray Indu (Japan Chemical), Thyssenkrupp (Germany Steel)


+ Korea Market


* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 282.15 (+0.09%) foreign investors +1,421constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,123.20 Won (-0.55 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.7 (-0.0) 
- KOSDAQ 7.2 (-0.0)

- IT 44.4 (0.0)
- Financial 22.0 (-0.1)
- Refiners & Chemicals 10.1 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (+0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, +0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.08 trillion won -0.00 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.06%, -0.00%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)