daily_2019.02.25(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 2.4%(+1.4%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 15.3%(+9.1%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 25.4%(-10.6%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle 

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.49% (-0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.65% (-0.04%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.158% (-0.002%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.30% (-0.04%p)
US high yield 6.65% (-0.05%p)

Emerging government bond 6.41% (-0.06%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.14% (-0.07%p)
Korea stock yield 9.15% (-0.02%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.02% (-0.01%p)
- Up : Brazil
- Down : Italy

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (86, +16 vs. 52week low (5, -1)

+ 52week high

* US REITs
- Boston Property (US REITs), Prologis (US REITs)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 289.35 (+0.21%) foreign investors +893 constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,122.50 Won (-2.72 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 124.1 (-0.2)
- KOSDAQ 6.9 (-0.0)

- IT 43.5 (+0.0)
- Financial 20.2 (-0.2)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.8 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (+0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, +0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.37 trillion won +0.03 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.12%, +0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)