daily_2019.02.18(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.15

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 4.4%(+2.5%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 11.5%(-1.2%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 43.2.1%(+1.1%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.51% (+0.01%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.66% (+0.00%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.148% (-0.015%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.31% (+0.01%p)
US high yield 6.74% (+0.01%p)

Emerging government bond 6.45% (+0.08%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.04% (-0.25%p)
Korea stock yield 9.35% (+0.06%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : Mexico

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (58, +18 vs. 52week low (11, +3)

+ 52week high

* US Software
- Autodesk (US IT S/W), Workday (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 285.85 (+0.60%) foreign investors +1,693constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,124.95 Won (-3.75 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 125.4 (+0.3)
- KOSDAQ 7.1 (-0.2)

- IT 44.2 (-0.0)
- Financial 20.4 (+0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.9 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (-0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.31X, -0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.22 trillion won +0.02 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.08%, +0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)