daily_2019.02.22(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 1.0%(-1.1%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 6.2%(-7.0%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 36.0%(-3.3%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle 

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.53% (+0.03%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.69% (+0.04%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.160% (+0.015%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.34% (+0.04%p)
US high yield 6.70% (-0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.47% (+0.04%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.21% (-0.10%p)
Korea stock yield 9.17% (-0.00%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.03% (-0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down : Mexico, Russia, Saudi

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (70, +2 vs. 52week low (6, +3)

+ 52week high

* US Utility
- First Energy (US Utility), WEC Energy (US Utility)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 287.60 (-0.35%) foreign investors +152 constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,125.00 Won (-0.28 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 124.3 (-0.5)
- KOSDAQ 6.9 (-0.0)

- IT 43.5 (-0.6)
- Financial 20.4 (+0.1)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.8 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.9 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, +0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.34 trillion won +0.03 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.10%, +0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)