daily_2019.02.14(Eng ver)

daily_2019.02.14

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 11.1%(+5.0%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 5.5%(-9.2%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 39.4%(+6.8%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.54% (+0.04%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.71% (+0.03%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.171% (+0.008%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.36% (+0.03%p)
US high yield 6.80% (-0.06%p)

Emerging government bond 6.46% (-0.03%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.31% (-0.04%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.32% (-0.11%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.05% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (53, -6 vs. 52week low (9, +1)

+ 52week high

* US Software
- Autodesk (US IT S/W), Splunk (US IT S/W)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 284.90 (-0.28%) foreign investors -1,222constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,124.90 Won (+3.17 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 123.0 (-2.1) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (-0.0)

- IT 44.1 (-0.1)
- Financial 20.0 (-1.8)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.9 (-0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 4.0 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (+0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.32X, 0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.16 trillion won +0.04 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.06%, -0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)