daily_2019.01.30(Eng ver)

daily_2019.01.30

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike twice in 2019 1.5% (-0.3%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 28.6% (-9.4%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.57% (-0.02%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.71% (-0.03%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.141% (-0.014%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.44% (-0.03%p)
US high yield 7.09% (+0.01%p)

Emerging government bond 6.51% (+0.00%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.52% (+0.04%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.88% (-0.08%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.08% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (32, +15) vs. 52week low (6개, -2개)

+ 52week high

* Global REITs
- Link REIT (Hong Kong REITs), American Tower (US REITs)

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 282.90 (-0.23%) foreign investors -1,693constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,117.20 Won (+0.82 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 130.1 (-0.2) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (-0.1)

- IT 46.9 (-0.0)
- Financial 22.1 (+0.1)
- Refining & Chemical 10.4 (-0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (-0.1)
- Steel 4.0 (-0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.37X, +0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.00 trillion won -0.00 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.08%, +0.01%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)