daily_2019.01.29(Eng ver)

daily_2019.01.29

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike twice in 2019 1.8% (-1.6%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 38.0% (-3.5%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.59% (-0.02%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.74% (-0.02%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.155% (+0.003%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.47% (-0.02%p)
US high yield 7.08% (-0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.51% (-0.02%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.48% (+0.01%p) 
Korea stock yield 9.96% (-0.04%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.08% (-0.00%p)
- Up : Russia
- Down : Mexico, Turkey

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (17, -6) vs. 52week low (8개, +2개)

+ 52week high

* Global REITs
- UDR (US REITs), BR Malls (Brazil REITs)

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 281.95 (-0.07%) foreign investors -84constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,118.25 Won (+0.35 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 130.3 (-0.3) 
- KOSDAQ 7.4 (-0.0)

- IT 46.9 (-0.3)
- Financial 22.0 (-0.1)
- Refining & Chemical 10.5 (+0.0)
- Auto 5.3 (-0.1)
- Steel 4.0 (-0.1)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.36X, -0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.00 trillion won +0.03 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.07%, +0.00%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)