daily_2019.01.24(Eng ver)

daily_2019.01.24

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike twice in 2019 1.5% (+0.4%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 41.9% (+13.6%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.59% (+0.01%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.75% (+0.01%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.162% (+0.003%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.51% (+0.00%p)
US high yield 7.13% (+0.10%p)

Emerging government bond rate 6.67% (+0.05%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.70% (+0.02%p) 
Korea stock yield 10.47% (-0.09%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.11% (0.00%p)
- Up :
- Down :

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (17, +2) vs. 52week low (7개, 0개)

+ 52week high

* Global Telecoms
- Rogers Communication (Canada, Telecom), China Telecom (China Telecom)

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 274.70 (-0.04%) foreign investors -771constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,125.46 Won (-1.98 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 134.2 (-0.8) 
- KOSDAQ 7.3 (+0.0)

- IT 50.3 (-0.5)
- Financial 22.1 (-0.2)
- Refining & Chemical 10.5 (+0.0)
- Auto 5.5 (0.0)
- Steel 4.2 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.42X, -0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 4.92 trillion won +0.06 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.10%, +0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)