daily_2019.01.25(Eng ver)

daily_2019.01.25

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike twice in 2019 1.6% (+0.1%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop qunatitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate untill summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 20.4% (-21.5%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle : US high yield rate > Emerging government bond rate

Fed Fund rate : 2.50%  
US 2Y T-bill : 2.56% (-0.03%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.71% (-0.04%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.149% (-0.013%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.47% (-0.04%p)
US high yield 7.12% (-0.01%p)

Emerging government bond 6.54% (-0.13%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.70% (0.00%p) 
Korea stock yield 10.30% (-0.17%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.08% (-0.03%p)
- Up : Mexico
- Down : India, Russia, US

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (20, +3) vs. 52week low (6개, -1개)

+ 52week high

+ 52week low

+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 278.40 (+0.47%) foreign investors +2,710constracts 
* KRW 1M NDF 1,128.05 Won (-0.60 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 133.9 (-0.3) 
- KOSDAQ 7.4 (+0.1)

- IT 50.3 (-0.0)
- Financial 22.1 (0.0)
- Refining & Chemical 10.5 (0.0)
- Auto 5.5 (0.0)
- Steel 4.1 (-0.1)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (-0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.41X, -0.01X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 4.95 trillion won +0.03 trillion won 
- % of Market cap, 2.08%, -0.02%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)