daily_2019.03.07(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 1.9%(-6.5%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 5.4%(+1.2%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 33.8%(-10.1%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle 

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.51% (-0.03%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.68% (-0.04%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.172% (0.000%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.30% (-0.03%p)
US high yield 6.56% (+0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.37% (-0.01%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.10% (-0.03%p)
Korea stock yield 9.25% (-0.07%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.02% (0.00%p)
- Up : 
- Down : 

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (32, 0 vs. 52week low (8, -1)

+ 52week high

* US REITs 
- UDR (US Residential REITs), Mid-American Apt (US Residential REITs)

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 280.25 (-0.09%) foreign investors -522 constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,127.28 Won (-1.62 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 121.6 (-0.4)
- KOSDAQ 6.8 (+0.0)

- IT 43.0 (-0.4)
- Financial 19.8 (+0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.7 (-0.0)
- Auto 5.2 (-0.0)
- Steel 3.8 (0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, +0.00X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.32 trillion won -0.14 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.08%, -0.03%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)