daily_2019.03.06(Eng ver)

1. Centralbanks

Fed : hike twice in 2019 + continue to shrink balance sheet
- Probability to hike in 2019 8.4%(+5.1%p)
- Probability to cut in 2019 4.3%(-1.5%p)

US recession probability 25.0% (0.0%p)

FOMC

- Most hawkish : 1
- Hawkish : 5
- Neutral : 6
- Dovish : 3
- Most dovish : 2

European Central Bank : stop quantitative easing in 2019 + hold key rate until summer
- Probability to hike in 2019 43.9%(-5.3%p)

Bank of Japan : target 10Y JGB yield to 0%

People's Bank of China : prudent and flexible policy

2. Credit Cycle 

Fed Fund rate : 2.50% 
US 2Y T-bill : 2.54% (0.00%p)
US 10Y T-Note : 2.72% (0.00%p)
- US 10Y - 2Y : 0.172% (-0.004%pp)

US BBB corp bond : 4.33% (+0.01%p)
US high yield 6.54% (+0.02%p)

Emerging government bond 6.38% (+0.05%p)

Emerging stock yield 8.13% (-0.03%p)
Korea stock yield 9.32% (+0.05%p)

3. Macro

G20 GDP growth rate consensus in 2019 : 3.02% (0.00%p)
- Up : 
- Down : 

4. HiLo in MSCI World Index 52week hig (32, -36 vs. 52week low (4, -1)

+ 52week high

+ 52week low


+ Korea Market

* Kospi200 futures on After hours , 281.00 (+0.11%) foreign investors +977 constracts
* KRW 1M NDF 1,125.02 Won (-0.38 Won)

* Net Income consensus in 2019 (trillion won)

- KOSPI 122.0 (-0.3)
- KOSDAQ 6.8 (+0.0)

- IT 43.4 (-0.0)
- Financial 19.8 (0.0)
- Refiners & Chemicals 9.7 (+0.1)
- Auto 5.2 (0.0)
- Steel 3.8 (+0.0)
- Cosmetics 1.6 (0.0)

* Samll-Mid cap / Big cap, 1.34X, +0.03X (1.78X in 2015.07.24)

* Kosdaq loan amount, 5.46 trillion won +0.03 trillion won
- % of Market cap, 2.11%, -0.03%p (Low 1.5%~2.0% High)